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Top 3 Sector Portfolio Market Update

Updated: 4 hours ago

Tuesday 10/22/24 1:45 pm


We focus on Sector etf and Stock Investing Strategies using an algorithmic trading model that

analyzes Relative Strength, Momentum, MACD and On Balance Volume indicators to select Stocks and ETFs. The portfolio is predominantly long, but can go short depending on market conditions. A small select group of 2x Index ETFs are also key parts of our portfolio mix.


Follow the Top 3 Sector Portfolio up 21% so far in 2024 with the SP500 rising 19% as of 9/30/24.


Our Aggressive Growth Portfolio is up 41% so far this year. This portfolio features a mix of stocks and Sector ETFs.


And our new Top 3 Sector/Stock/Dividend Stock Plus portfolio which we started in January 2023, is up a very strong 42% versus the SP500's gain of 19%.


The Top 3 Sector Mission


Highest Total Return thru Sector ETFs and Stocks showing strong momentum and relative strength, in industries that disrupt, innovate and improve the way the world works.


Top 3 Sector Site Map


Today's Action Note - we publish our report between Noon and 1:00 pm


  • Market Dashboard Stock indices, Adv/Decline, Volume, VIX, TICK, Commodities

  • Stocks/ETFs showing Above Average Daily Volume

  • AAII Investor Sentiment - Fear/Greed Index of the Week

  • Today's Sector ETFs - Best and Worst

  • Stock Market Update

  • 2024 YTD Best and Worst Sector ETF and Stock Performance

  • Stocks In The News Today – Earnings, Upgrades/Downgrades

  • SP 500 & Nasdaq Current Charts

  • Stocks We Are Watching Now

  • Top 3 Sector, Top 3 Plus & Aggressive Growth Portfolio Performance 2024 YTD Buy/Sell Stops

  • Best Dividend ETFs for 2023


In Our Archives (click "Top 3 Strategy" tab at top of site)

  • How the "Sell 1/3" Program Works - EBAY chart

  • The 10 Day/ 21 Day Moving Average Market Timing Signal

  • Why Dividends Should Always Be Invested

  • Warren Buffett's $1 M Bet the SP500 Index Fund Would Beat A Hedge Fund

  • The "Seven Percent Rule" To Cut Losses

  • CNBC's Josh Brown's Chart - How Many Years To Double/Triple Your Investment?

  • The Power Of Reinvested Dividends - How an SP500's Gain of 491% From 2009 Becomes +675% If You Reinvest Dividends

  • The Secret To How The Top 3 Sector Portfolio Outperforms the SP500


 

STOCK MARKET SNAPSHOT

Tuesday 10/22/24 1:45 pm


Dow edges down .03%, but well off the lows, SP500 -.16%, QQQ -.04% (saved by MSFT's 2% pop), Russell -.35%, VIX stalled at 18.69, Adv/Decline 1060/1650,

Dollar flat, GDX up 2%, Bitcoin 0.6%, Oil up 2.5%, Volume on SPY is 15M, very light for such a heavy earnings reporting day.




Top 10 Stocks In QQQ -





Zanger Volume Ratio - Today


Exclusive Indicator only available on E-Signal platform and our Top 3 Sector Portfolio Site.

Shows Percent Change Above or Below Average Daily Volume


Sector ETFs Stocks



SECTORS

Defense ITA -3.35 on 480% above avg daily volume

Builders ITB -3% on 160% volume

Biotech IBB -.2% on 140% volume

Gold Miners GDX +2% on 100% volume


STOCKS

MMM -1.5% on 900% above avg volume

GE -8.5% on 700% vol

Philip Morris +9% on 500% vol.

GM +9% on 460% vol

Verizon -4.5% on 445% vol

Lockheed Martin -6% on 400% vol



*Note: The Zanger Ratio is quite different from overall volume indicators, in that

it shows a particular stock's volume change above or below its average daily volume,

which is much more indicative of what's happening with that stock than simply high volume. It is exclusive to E-signal, our Top 3 Sector Portfolio website, and not available anywhere else.


 

Stock Index Performance So Far In 2024


  • SP500  +       22.5%

  • Nasdaq QQQ:  + 20.5%  

  • SP500 Eq Weight + 14.2%

  • Dow Industrials + 14%

  • Russell 2000:  + 10.5%



 

10 Year Bond Yield Hits 4.18%


Based on the chart of the 10 yr yield below, it hit an intraday high of 4.96% on 10/25/2023, then fell to a low of 3.6% on 9/16/24, then popped 16% to today's high of 4.18%. What is a bit concerning is the 'rate of change' from that September low to today's 4.18%, which seems to be affecting the stock market due to its sudden momentum.


Reasons given for the rise include the fact that the economy and jobs market are stronger than expected, as well as the fact that the new policies of a newly elected president could stoke inflation.


The U.S. dollar also appreciating, as well as gold which is just unstoppable and equally puzzling as to why the precious metal is rising along with stocks. Bond prices and charts looking not so good right now. We sold the last of our Vanguard short term corp etf VCSH today in the Top 3 Sector Portfolio.




 

Important Earnings for Week of 10/21/2024

  

Tuesday 

Verizon, GM, 3M, Raytheon, FCX, GE, Lockheed, Phillip Morris, Sherwin Williams,

Kimberly Clark, Moody’s, Enphase Energy, Seagate, Texas Instr, Canadian Rail,

Baker Hughes

 

Wednesday 

Tesla, Lam Research, IBM, Service Now, Newmont Mining, T Mobile, Boeing,

Vertiv Hldgs, ATT, Coke, GE Vernova, Thermo Fisher, Boston Sci, General Dynamics, Winnebago, Hilton, Las Vegas Sands, United Rentals, Mattel, Whirlpool 

 

Thursday 

UPS, American Air, Southwest Air, Nasdaq, Union Pacific, Dow Chemical, Harley Davidson, Honeywell, Northrop, Hasbro, Deckers, Skechers, Boyd Gaming,

Capital One

 

Friday 

Colgate, Piper Sandler, Booz Allen, NY Comm Bancorp, Auto Nation 

  

 

 


Today's Best and Worst Sectors At 1:32 pm


Up: Oil USO +2.8%, Gold Miners GDX +2%, China Internet KWEB +1.8%


Down: Defense -3.3%, Builders -3%, Retail XRT -1.3%, Telecom XTL -1.2%






Today's Best and Worst Stocks At 1:33 pm


Up: GM +9%, Citi +2.5%, MSFT +2%, Newmont +1.7%, BMY +1.4%


Down: Lockheed -6%, Verizon -4.5%, Lennar -3.4%, TOL -3.3%



*These select stocks and Sector ETFs are chosen for their representation of key Sectors, and large

trading volume. We are aware that not all stocks are covered. As bellwether stocks , they show where the big money is flowing in, and even more importantly, where the money is flowing out of.



 

Today's Stock Market Action


Tuesday 10/22/24 1:09 pm


Stocks drop for a second day as rising yields weigh on sentiment


Stocks fell for a second session Tuesday as an uptick in interest rates overshadowed a solid start to the earnings reporting season.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered just underneath the flatline. The S&P 500 slipped nearly 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite pulled back by less than 0.1%.


The  U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield briefly climbed above 4.2% for the first time in three months before pulling back from that level. Cautious commentary from Federal Reserve officials on the path of interest rate cuts has pushed yields higher.


Yields have actually increased since the Fed cut by a half point a month ago. Part of that move can be attributed to improving economic data, but some of that increase is due to pessimism the Fed won’t be as aggressive with rate cuts moving forward.


Traders see an 89% chance of a quarter-point cut at the Fed’s next meeting ending Nov. 7, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool based on fed funds futures trading.


Homebuilding stocks dropped on persistent higher-for-longer rate concerns, with Lennar and D.R. Horton each losing more than 3%.


“The market had moved into overbought territory, making it vulnerable to anything it perceives as negative ... It’s now worried that the Fed has not declared victory on inflation, and not to mention, the concerns post-election,” said LPL Financial chief global strategist Quincy Krosby. 


Traders are also eyeing a fresh slate of earnings reports that are set to come out this week, including Tesla and Coca-Cola on Wednesday and Honeywell on Thursday.


On Tuesday, General Motors jumped nearly 9% after topping Wall Street’s third-quarter expectations and raising its full-year guidance. Philip Morris also soared roughly 8.5% after the Marlboro maker raised its annual profit forecast, while Verizon shed more than 4% after its total revenue just missed analysts’ forecast.


So far, about 19% of companies in the broad index have reported results, with more than seven out of 10 topping earnings estimates, according to FactSet.


The market has been on a hot streak in October with the S&P 500 reaching a record and stretching its year-to-date gain to beyond 22%. A loss in Tuesday’s session would be the first back-to-back losing session for the benchmark since early September.

Moments Ago


Philip Morris surges on earnings beat


Shares of Philip Morris popped more than 8.5% and are on track for their best day since March 13, 2020 following this earnings beat before the bell. The tobacco giant also raised its full-year guidance.


  • Third-quarter adjusted earnings came in at $1.91 per share, above the $1.82 a share expected from analysts polled by FactSet. Revenue was $9.91 billion, topping the $9.68 billion consensus estimate.

  • For the full year, Philip Morris now expects adjusted EPS between $6.45 to $6.51, versus its previous range of $6.33 to $6.45. Analysts were expecting guidance of $6.41 per share, according to FactSet.

  • The company’s smoke-free business is booming. Last quarter net revenue jumped 18% organically and this quarter net revenue jumped another 17% organically.


The results reflect “excellent momentum across all regions and categories, with a reacceleration in IQOS adjusted in-market sales growth, strong ZYN volumes, and resilient combustible performance,” CEO Jacek Olczak said in a statement.


Genuine Parts, General Motors among the names making moves midday

Some stocks are making big moves in midday trading:


  • Genuine Parts – Shares fell about 20% on the back of the company’s weaker-than-expected earnings for the third quarter. In the period, Genuine Parts earned $1.88 per share, excluding items, below the $2.42 per share that analysts polled by FactSet were expecting. It also slashed its full-year forecast. The stock was headed for its worst day on record.


  • General Motors – The stock jumped more than 9% after the automaker posted better-than-expected third-quarter results and raised its full-year forecast. For the period, GM earned an adjusted $2.96 per share on $48.76 billion in revenue. Analysts had expected $2.43 per share on $44.59 billion in revenue, per LSEG. Shares were headed for their biggest one-day gain in nearly a year.


  • Verizon Communications – The telecom giant dipped 4% after posting third-quarter revenue of $33.33 billion, which came below the $33.43 billion analysts polled by LSEG had expected. However, Verizon’s earnings per share of $1.19 came in 1 cent above estimates of $1.18. The company also reaffirmed its full-year outlook.


Gold hit another record high. Here’s how the pros are viewing the rally


Gold, known to be a classic “safe haven” asset, has been on a tear this year due to rising geopolitical tensions and broader macroeconomic uncertainties.


  • Spot gold prices have soared above $2,700 an ounce and rallied for the fifth day on Monday to hit another record high of more than $2,733 an ounce.

  • Year to date, spot gold is up more than 30%.

  • The precious metal rose again in early Tuesday trading, adding 0.5% to $2,732.58.


Against this backdrop, CNBC Pro talked to several investing pros about their outlook on gold. Many are bullish, expecting gold to reach $3,000 an ounce by 2025. But there is still some cautious sentiment behind the rally.


“Declining interest rates will be a nice tailwind for the gold market and increase prices over the next six to 12 months. But you could well see volatility in the short-term … driven partly by speculative investors,” said John Reade, senior markets


Famed Investor Paul Tudor Jones Warns Bonds Will Fall

Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones is raising alarms about the U.S. government’s current fiscal deficit and the increased spending promised by both presidential candidates, saying the bond market may force the government’s hand after the election in addressing it.


“We are going to be broke really quickly unless we get serious about dealing with our spending issues,” Jones told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin on Tuesday.


The founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment said he was worried that government spending could cause a big sell-off in the bond market, spiking interest rates. He said he plans to not own fixed income and will be betting against the longer-dated part of the bond market.


__________________________________



Sector ETF Performance in 2024


Bitcoin +55% back to #1, Semi's +44%, SSO +43%, GDX +40%,QLD +34%,

Telecom +29%, Defense and Builders both +24%





Stock Performance in 2024


NVDA +186%, TSM +93%, UAL +81% ,META 62%, Broadcom +63%, LLY +56%,

Intuit Surg +54%, Netflix +58%, Walmart +53%, Tol Bros +51%, Raytheon +49%




 


STOCKS IN THE NEWS TODAY 10/22/24

Click on stock name for real time quote


Genuine Parts — Shares fell about 20% on the back of the company’s weaker-than-expected earnings for the third quarter. During the period, Genuine Parts earned $1.88 per share, excluding items, below the $2.42 per share that analysts polled by FactSet were expecting. It also slashed its full-year forecast. The stock was headed for its worst day on record.


General Motors — The stock jumped more than 9% after the automaker posted better-than-expected third-quarter results and raised its full-year forecast. For the period, GM earned an adjusted $2.96 per share on $48.76 billion in revenue. Analysts had expected $2.43 in earnings per share on $44.59 billion in revenue, per LSEG. Shares were headed for their biggest one-day gain in nearly a year.


Verizon Communications — The telecommunications giant dipped 4% after posting third-quarter revenue of $33.33 billion, which came in below the $33.43 billion analysts polled by LSEG had expected. However, Verizon’s earnings per share of $1.19 came in 1 cent above estimates of $1.18. The company also reaffirmed its full-year outlook.


GE Aerospace — The defense company tumbled more than 9% after posting mixed third-quarter results. GE Aerospace reported adjusted revenue of $8.94 billion, while analysts polled by LSEG estimated $9.02 billion. Meanwhile, adjusted earnings per share of $1.15 beat consensus forecasts by just 1 cent.


Philip Morris International — The tobacco company popped nearly 9% after reporting third-quarter results that beat expectations. Philip Morris also lifted its 2024 guidance and showed strength in its smoke-free business.


Lockheed Martin — Shares slid more than 5% after the company’s third-quarter revenue missed expectations. Lockheed Martin posted $17.1 billion for the quarter, below the $17.35 billion that analysts surveyed by LSEG were expecting. However, earnings came in above expectations in the period, and the company also lifted its outlook for the full year.


Deckers Outdoor — Shares fell nearly 3% following BTIG’s downgrade of the footwear and apparel maker to neutral from buy. The firm believes signs of moderating growth are putting shares “at risk.”


First Solar — Shares popped 3.4% on the heels of Citi’s upgrade to buy from neutral. Citi said First Solar should be able to benefit regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential election in November.


Zions Bancorporation — Shares rose more than 7% after the regional bank posted better-than-expected quarterly results. Zions earned $1.37 per share on revenue of $792 million, while analysts had expected $1.17 in earnings per share on revenue of $779 million, according to LSEG. The bank’s net interest margin also saw a year-over-year increase.


Nucor — The stock plunged about 8% after the steel producer said it sees GAAP earnings per share for the current period declining compared to the prior quarter. That said, the company reported an adjusted earnings and revenue beat for the third quarter.


Sherwin-Williams — Shares dropped nearly 4% after the paint manufacturer’s third-quarter results missed estimates. Sherwin-Williams posted adjusted earnings of $3.37 per share, excluding items, on revenue of $6.16 billion. That is lower than the $3.55 in earnings per share on revenue of $6.20 billion that analysts were looking for, per FactSet.


Paccar — Shares lost more than 5% after the company reported a drop in deliveries. Global new truck deliveries in the third quarter came in at 44,900 units, below the 50,100 units the company saw in the year-ago period.


Quest Diagnostics — The stock rallied nearly 7% on the back of third-quarter results that beat analysts’ expectations. Quest earned an adjusted $2.30 per share on revenue of $2.49 billion. Analysts polled by FactSet anticipated a profit of $2.26 per share on revenue of $2.43 billion.


Norfolk Southern — Shares popped 4% after the freight train operator reported earnings and revenue that beat analysts’ expectations. The move put Norfolk Southern on pace for its best day since July 26, when it jumped 10.9%.r 2025..



 


SP500 and Nasdaq QQQ Indexes



SP500 etf SPY






Nasdaq 100 QQQ



Wynn



Hot Stocks & Sectors We Are Watching Today


Stocks selected are based on our 8 proprietary technical indicators we use in

all of our portfolio screening which include relative strength, momentum,

Multiple MACD Buy/Sell timing triggers, and on balance volume.


Chart Key For All Charts:


White line: 10 Day Moving Avg

Green line: 21 Day MA

Orange: 50 DMA

Pink: 100 DMA

Blue: 150 DMA

Red: 200 DMA


Charts To Watch Today - The Strong And The Weak


Lockheed Martin - Defense stocks hit today after all time highs Monday

Verizon losing 4% on 600% higher volume, slower equip sales

GM up 8% on 500% above avg volume

MMM down 2%

Microsoft rising 2%, best of Mag 7

Uranium etf URA

Defense etf ITA down 3% on 600% above avg vol.

Toll Bros - falling

Home Builders etf ITB - down 3% on rising rates

Philip Morris - soaring on smoke-free sales
















Top 3 Sector Portfolio Preferred Stocks/Sector ETFs



Current Stock/ETF Recommendations

Index: QLD, SSO

Tech/Software/Comm: META, NVDA, PANW, MSFT, AMZN,AMAT,

Robotics BOTZ, CRWD, SMH, AVGO

Consumer Discr: EXPE, BKNG, NFLX, AZO, COST, MCD

Industrials: GE, MMM, CAT, JETS (Airlines), PAVE (Infrastructure)

Housing: Builders etf ITB, KBH, TOL

Health Care: Intuitive Surg ISRG

Energy:

Utilities: IDU etf, VZ, ATT

Defense: Defense etf ITA, XAR (Aerospace etf), RTX, LHX

Finance: JPM, MA, GS, SPGI, Banking etf KBE, IAK Insurance

Commodities: GDX, GLD, Cameco CCJ, URA uranium etf

International:

Real Estate: Dividend ETFs: RDIV Rising Div&Rev (4% Div), Rising Dividend RDVY (2% div)

Super Div SDIV (12% div)

Bonds:



Top 3 Sector Portfolios


We track three different types of portfolios, each with their own specific

asset allocations and level of risk.


The Top 3 Sector Portfolio is an all-Sector ETF portfolio. It is a medium to

low risk mix of ETFs that totally avoids the issue of single stock risk. We recommend this portfolio for investors seeking strong returns, but with less risk ,

higher cash balances, and more diversity for a good balance of growth with safety.


Our Aggressive Growth Portfolio utilizes a mix of stocks and Sector ETFs

to boost performance. It is a higher risk portfolio than the Top 3 Sector,

and generally out-performs it by 10% to 15%.


Our most speculative portfolio is the Top 3 Sector, Stock and Dividend PLUS

Portfolio. As the title implies, it is heavily weighted to Stocks and Sector ETFs


The Top 3 Sector PLUS portfolio uses a proprietary algorithm that selects the 3-5 best stocks/etfs based on RSI, Momentum, Relative Volume and performance, constantly updating the top holdings. It is designed for experienced traders, and features a very active management style. It is a high risk/high reward strategy.



 

Top 3 Sector Update 10/18/24


See individual portfolios below for details.


_______________________________________________________


Top 3 Sector Portfolio

Performance 2024 +25%


The Top 3 Sector Portfolio is up 25% in 2024, versus the SP500's gain of 23%, and the QQQ is up 21%.


The Current asset allocation:

Index 21%, Sectors/ETFs 33%, Dividend ETFs 27%, Cash 19%


Best Performers


#1 SSO 2x SP500 +41%

#2 QLD 2x Nasdaq +35%

#3 Homebuilders ITB +18%

#4 Defense ITA +19%


Buy Stops

Buy 2% GDX Gold Miners etf @ 43.74 Triggered on 10/21/24 @ 43.74


Sell Stops

Sold Vanguard Short Trm Bond VCSH @ 78.67 on 10/21/24 Loss: -0.5%

Sell XLE Energy etf @ 90.07 on 10/21/24 Loss: -2.2%

Sold KBE Banking etf @ 54.38 on 10/21/24 Loss: -2.1%


Ticker Symbols for Top 3 Sector Portfolio:

QLD,SSO,HACK,ITA,SDIV, RDVY,SPGI,ITB,VCSH,RDIV,URA,XLE




 

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

Performance For 2024 +43%


The Aggressive Growth Portfolio which features a mix of ETFs and Stocks

is up 43% for 2024, versus the SP500's +23%.


Current Asset Allocation:

Index 20%, Stocks 36%, Sectors/ETFs 10%, Dividend ETFs 22%, Cash 12%.


Best Performers


#1 Intuitive Surgical +71%

#2 META +65%

#3 SSO 2x SPY +43%

#4 QLD 2x QQQ +37%

#5 Palo Alto +28%

#6 Homebuilders ITB +18%

#7 Rising Div RDVY +16%



Buy Stops  

Buy 2% JP Morgan @ 226.93


Sell Stops

Sold XLE Energy etf @ 90.07 on 10/21/24 Loss: -4.2%


Ticker Symbols For Aggressive Growth Portfolio QLD,SSO,META,RDVY,PANW,SDIV,ISRG,ITB,XBI,XAR, XLE,RDIV,CCJ




 


Top 3 Sector/Stock/Dividend Plus Portfolio

Performance For 2024 +49%


The Top 3 Plus portfolio is up 49% for 2024, more than double the SP500's gain of +23%


Best Performers

#1 Nvidia +191%

#4 Meta + 65%

#3 SSO 2x SPY +43%

#4 QLD 2x QQQ +37%

#5 Netflix +24%


Current Asset Allocation:

Index/Sectors 30%, Stocks 50%, Dividend ETFs 14%, Cash 8%


Buy Stops 

Buy 2% Honeywell @ 224.74

Buy 2% Airlines JETS @ 22.88


Sell Stops 

Sell XLE Energy etf @ 90.07 on 10/21/24 Loss: -2.2%

Sold Wynn @ 97.97 on 10/21/24 Loss: -7%

Ticker Symbols for Top 3 Plus Portfolio:

QLD,SSO,HACK,NVDA,META,SDIV,GOOGL,NFLX,RDVY,LLY,COST, CAT,SPGI, FXI, WYNN





 



Best Dividend ETFs for 2024


#1 Utilities IDU +30% 2.09%

#2 Vanguard Div Apprec VIG +18% 1.70%

#3 Vanguard Hi Div Yld +17.5% 2.76%

#4 Rising Dividend RDVY +17% 1.68%

#5 Vanguard Emerg Mkt VWO +16% 2.47%

#6 Rising Div & Revenue RDIV +13% 3.76%







Best Dividend ETFs From January 2023 (21 months) Longer Term Performance


Looking at the longer term performance, from the market low made in January of 2023,one dividend stock etf stands out:

is our Rising Dividend etf RDVY up a remarkable 38%, with a 1.7% dividend. #2 is the VIG vanguard Div apprec +33% and #3 Europe IEUR +25%.



#1 Rising Div RDVY +38% 1.7%

#2 Vanguard Div Apprec. VIG +33% 1.7%

#3 Europe IEUR +25% 3%

#4 Emerg Mkts IEMG +23% 2.6%







Top 3 Sector Portfolio - Longer Time Frame

Performance From 1/3/23 +79% (22 Months)






Aggressive Growth Portfolio

Performance From 1/3/23 +123% (22 Months)






Top 3 Plus Stock/ETF/Dividend Stock Portfolio

Performance From 1/3/23 +137% (22 Months)








In Our Archives

(Click "Top 3 Sector Strategy" at Top of site)


How the "Sell A Third" protects your profits


Our Best Market Timing Indicator: the 10 Day/21 Day Moving Average Cross Over


The 7% Solution - When To Sell A Stock


CNBC's Josh Brown What Percent ReturCanto Double Your Money In 5 Years?


What Does Top 3 Sector Mean And How Does It Give You An Edge?


How Reinvested Dividends Can Add 50% to 75% To Your Returns





NUALOLO VALLEY, KAUAI




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Follow the Top 3 Sector Portfolio up 21% in 2024 and up 73% past 12 months









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