Top 3 Sector Portfolio Market Update
Updated: 16 hours ago
We focus on Sector Investing Strategies using an algorithmic trading model
that analyzes MACD, Relative Strength, Momentum, and On Balance Volume indicators to select Stocks and ETFs. The portfolio can go long or short depending on market conditions. A small select group of 2x Index ETFs are also key parts of our portfolio mix.
Follow the Top 3 Sector Portfolio, up 13% in in the past 14 months, v.s. SP500's -16%, beating the SP500 by 29% . The portfolio is up 12% in 2023, SP500 up 4.5%.
Our Aggressive Growth Portfolio is up 18% past 14 months, this portfolio features a mix of stocks and Sector ETFs. It's up 13% so far in 2023.
And our new Top 3 Sector/Stock/Dividend Stock Plus portfolio which we started
in January 2023, is up an impressive 43% YTD. Beating the SP500 by 38%!
TOP 3 SECTOR MISSION
Highest Total Return thru Sector ETFs and Stocks showing strong momentum, in industries that disrupt, innovate and improve the way the world works.
Top 3 Sector Site Map
Market Dashboard Stock indices, Adv/Decline, Volume, VIX, TICK, Commodities
Market Update
Stocks In The News Today – Earnings, Upgrades/Downgrades
Top 3 Sector Portfolio Outlook
Top 3 Sector Portfolio & Aggressive Growth Portfolio Performance 2023 YTD Buy/Sell Stops
Today's Sector ETFs - Best and Worst
Today's Stocks - Best and Worst
2023 YTD Best Sector ETF Performance
2023 YTD Best Stock Performance
Best Dividend ETFs for 2023
Hot Charts To Watch Today
The Top 3 Sector Strategy - Why It Gives You An Edge
HOTTEST SECTORS OF 2023 YTD
Here are the best sectors of 2023 so far. SP500 is up 5.5% YTD.
#1 Bitcoin GBTC +92%
#2 2x QQQ QLD +37%
#3 Semi's SMH +29%
#4 Ark Innov ARKK +23%
#5 Robotics BOTZ +22%
#6 Social Media SOCL +18%
HOTTEST STOCKS OF 2023 YTD*
Best stocks for 2023 year to date include:
Semi's are the Kings of 2023. Eight of the top 20 stocks (40%) we track are all semiconductors: NVDA, AMD, SWKS, TSM, AMAT, LRCX, ASML, MU
#1 Nvidia +87%
#2 Meta +72%
#3 Tesla +59%
#4 AMD +52%
#5 Palo Alto Netw +40%
#6 Apple +32%
*Note: We track a select group of stocks that represent key bellwethers in
all the sectors we track.
STOCK MARKET UPDATE
Thursday 3/30/23 11:15 AM
Stock Indices Performance 2023 YTD
Dow Jones -1%
S&P 500: +5.5%
Nasdaq QQQ: +18.5%
Russell 2000: +.5%
AAII Weekly Sentiment Shows Bears In Charge
In the week ending 3/29/23, Bears decrease from 49% to 45% and Bulls rise slightly to 22.5%, as stocks rally into the end of the quarter. We will watch this trend to see if bullish sentiment is re-establishing itself after weeks of declines, or if this is just
a flash in the pan.
Stocks rise as trader bet the regional banking crisis has stabilized
Stocks rose Thursday, building on the sharp gains from the previous session, as traders bet the regional banking crisis has stabilized.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 100 points higher, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 gained 0.6%, wile the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.8%.
Regional banks ticked higher, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) advancing 1%. The ETF has gained more than 7% from its March 23 crisis low of $42.24, as investors posit that the central bank has reined in any further banking contagion. Shares of Western Alliance and PacWest gained more than 2% each.
Investors continue to show signs of optimism that perhaps the worst is behind them. The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s preferred measure of how turbulent the S&P 500 will be over the next 30 days, has pulled back to 19 after reaching 30 in the middle of March.
“Collectively, financial markets are pricing in the best of both worlds – a recession that allows rates to be low and brings inflation down sharply, yet one that does not have a massively negative effect on corporate earnings,” Barclays analyst Ajay Rajadhyaksha wrote in a Thursday note.
The three major indexes ended Wednesday higher, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way with a roughly 1.8% jump. The S&P 500 and Dow followed at 1.4% and 1% higher, respectively.
Weekly jobless claims increased by 7,000 to 198,000, adding to hopes that the Fed could slow down its tightening campaign because the labor market is cooling. Elsewhere, Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are all slated to speak in the afternoon.
Chipmakers hit highest level in nearly a year
The VanEck Vector Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose more than 1% on Thursday, reaching its highest level since April 5, 2022. KLA, ASML, Advanced Micro Devices and On Semiconductor contributed to the gain.
The SMH has been on fire to start the year, rising roughly 30%. That puts it on track for its biggest quarterly gain since the second quarter of 2020.
Blackstone CEO says banking crisis stems from smartphone use
Steve Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone, said the the broad use of social media and smartphones partly contributed to the banking crisis as many clients were able to react quickly with deposit withdrawals, he sad in an interview with Bloomberg News.
“This crisis was caused by people on iPhones and other devices, hearing on social media that some bank might be in trouble,” Schwarzman said to Bloomberg News. “They responded with huge withdrawals in a very short period of time, collapsing the bank.”
Overall, Schwarzman believes the crisis is an “interim issue” brought on by rapid interest rate hikes, which was worsened by technology. He said both are “solvable problems” for most banks." -cnbc.com 3/30/23
STOCKS IN THE NEWS TODAY
Click on stock name for real time quote
RH — The high-end furniture chain dropped 6.2% after reporting adjusted earnings per share of $2.88 for the fourth quarter, missing a StreetAccount forecast of $3.32 per share. RH’s first-quarter and full-year guidance also missed expectations.
Charles Schwab – Shares of Charles Schwab dipped more than 1% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the financial services giant, citing an extended earnings recovery timeline that makes the risk-reward balance for shares appear less compelling.
Philip Morris International — The tobacco maker gained 1.8% following an upgrade by JPMorgan to overweight from neutral. The firm cited the growth potential of Philip Morris’ heated tobacco technology known as IQOS Iluma.
Walmart — Shares of the retail giant rose about 1.5% in premarket trading after Evercore ISI upgraded Walmart to outperform from in-line. The investment firm said in a note to clients that Walmart is poised to see traffic and margins improve over the next two years.
Fluence Energy — The energy storage company popped 5.7% following an upgrade by Goldman Sachs to buy from neutral. The Wall Street bank said the recent pullback creates an attractive opportunity. Its price target of $29 implies 78% upside from Wednesday’s close.
Peabody Energy — Shares of the major coal producer slid 0.8% after the company confirmed a fire at its Shoal Creek Mine. All personnel were safely evacuated and an investigation is underway, Peabody Energy said.
UBS — U.S.-listed shares of the Swiss bank rose more than 2% in premarket trading, a day after UBS announced Sergio Ermotti would return as CEO to oversee the takeover of Credit Suisse.
Carnival — The cruise operator gained 2.2% in the premarket, adding to gains from the previous two sessions. Susquehanna upgraded Carnival to positive from neutral on Wednesday, citing EBITDA recovery for the cruise operator in 2024.
Top 3 Sector Portfolio Update 3/30/23
Stocks continued their slow grind higher, with Nasdaq the shining star,
up .7% on the day, and the QQQ now up 15.5% so far this year, compared to SP500's +5% gain YTD.
Semiconductors dominated today's action, with ASML +3%, INTC +2.4% and AMD up
2.2%. Biotech stocks and Banks pulled back, Regeneron fell 1.3%,
and Wells and BAC fell .9%.
At 12:38 pm, the Dow has reversed its 150 point gain and is now down 20 points
to 32,695, SP500 is up .2% to 4041, Nasdaq QQQ gaining .7%. The advance/decline line is 1800/1000 - a nice 2-1 for advancing issues, 10 yr bond yield is 3.55% unchanged.
The Dollar continues its move lower, down .5%, GDX up 1.6%, Oil +1.5%, and
the VIX is getting into the danger zone for stocks, down to 19.80.
Best sectors: Solar +2.3%, China 1.7%, Airlines, Gold, Europe all up 1.5%,
Semi's +1.2%, with Cloud, Travel, Emerg Mkts and Retail all up .8% to 1% each.
Best Stocks: BABA +4%, ASML 2.6%, SQ 2.4%, Caesars +2.4%, FCX +2.2%,
AMD +2.2%.
This has been a strong week for equities, which is welcome. But underneath the
surface there are some cracks forming. It looks like the Energy surge we've seen
in the past two days is fading, Health Care is also looking weak.
But the big event for Friday will be the CPE Consumer Price Expenditure report which will give us yet another snapshot of inflation that if it does not show a significant
decline could cause stocks to sell off. Let's see what happens at 8:30 am eastern
Friday before declaring victory for this bull rally. The major indices continue
to be supported solely by a handful of mega cap Tech and Comm's stocks
as seen in the following story:
Tech Leaders Are Boosting the Indices Big Time
There are seven stocks that are having an enormous impact on
both the SP500 and the Nasdaq's gains in 2023.
These 7 stocks are responsible for nearly all the SP500's gains year
to date, while the other 493 stocks are underperforming. When leadership
becomes this narrow, it's usually time to be a bit cautious, as any crack
in these high-PE/high flyers could take the bigger indices down hard.
But for now, party on.
Take a look at how each of them have performed so far in 2023,
it's quite amazing after last year's big losses in these kings of tech:
Percent Gain In 2023
NVDA 84%
META 69%
TSLA 55%
AAPL 30%
MSFT 16%
ALPHABET 15%
AMZN 18%
Portfolio Performance
Our two portfolios continue to outperform the benchmark SP500. The Top 3 Sector
portfolio is up 13% for the past 14 months (SP500 down -16%), thus beating the
SP500 by 29%. It is up +12% for 2023 (SP500 up 4%).
The Aggressive Growth portfolio is performing even better, up 18% from January
2022, and +13% in 2023.
New Model Portfolio In Beta Testing Mode
We have a new portfolio - the Top 3 Sector, Stock and Dividend stock
Pure Play Portfolio - which utilizes our 8 indicators to identify which sectors and stocks have the most momentum and relative strength. So far in 2023, it's up 43%.
Please see the new portfolio below in the next section.
Top 3 Sector Portfolio Changes 3/29/23
We bought OIH - Energy Svcs on 3/29/23 for our Top 3 Sector and Aggressive
Growth portfolios.
The Top 3 Sector portfolio is now 42% cash. That is one of the most
bearish cash levels this portfolio has had in over four years. It shows we are not confident about stocks recovering any time soon, but if they do, we'll have plenty of cash to snatch up bargains.
Current Stock/ETF Recommendations For 2023
Index: QLD
Tech/Software/Comm: META, AMD, NVDA, QCOM
Consumer Prods: PM, MCD, SBUX, PG
Industrials: XLI (Industrials etf),
Energy: OIH (Energy Svcs etf), XOM, SLB
Defense: LMT, NOC, RTX, BA, ITA (Defense etf)
Commodities:
International: Dividend ETFs: RDIV (Rising Div/Rising Rev etf 4.5% div), SDIV (13% dividend)
Bonds: SHY 1-3 Yr Treas 4.8% yld, VCSH ShrtTrmCorpBond etf 5.3% yld,
TLT (20 yr bond etf 4% yld)
Top 3 Sector Portfolio Performance Past 14 Months
(from 1/3/22)
The Top 3 Sector Portfolio is up 14% in the past 14 months versus SP500's loss
of -15%. We are beating the SP500 index by 29%. You can also see how this
portfolio performed so far this year in the next section below. We bought OIH
Energy Svcs on 3/29/23.
Current asset allocation:
Index 12%, Sectors/ETFs 16%, Dividend ETFs 30%, Cash 42%.
Best Holdings in Top 3 Sector Portfolio Past 14 Months
#1 QLD 2x QQQ +32%
#2 ITA Defense etf +16.5%
#3 SMH Semi's etf +16%
Buy Stops:
B. OIH @ 278.27 Triggered 3/29/23 @ 278.27
Sell Stops:
Aggressive Growth Portfolio Performance Past 14 Months (from 1/3/22)
The Aggressive Growth Portfolio which features a mix of ETFs and Stocks
is up 19% in the past 14 months, versus the SP500's -15%, beating the SP500 index
by 34%. You can also see the percent gain/loss YTD for this portfolio for 2023, following this section. We bought OIH - Energy Svcs on 3/29/23.
Current Asset Allocation:
Index 12%, Stocks 25%, Sectors/ETFs 14%, Dividend ETFs 31%, Cash 18%.
Best Holdings in Aggressive Growth Portfolio Past 14 Months
#1 QLD 2x QQQ +32%
#2 NUE Nucor +24%
#3 AMD +24%
#4 META +16%
Buy Stops:
B. OIH @ 278.27 Triggered 3/29/23 @ 278.27
Sell Stops:
Top 3 Sector and Aggressive Growth Portfolio Performance For 2023 YTD
Top 3 Sector Portfolio is up 13.5% in 2023, QLD +32%, SMH +16%
SP500 is up 5% for 2023.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio up 14.5% in 2023, QLD +32%, AMD +24%.
New Portfolio Model:
Top 3 Plus ETF/Stock/Rising Dividend Portfolio Pure Play Performance 2023 YTD
This is a new model portfolio we have created, which uses momentum
performance data to give us the top 3-4 ETFs, Stocks and Dividend Stock/Bond etfs
for maximum gains.
We are tracking it from January 3, 2023. It is up 45% so far this year, the
SP500 is up 5% YTD. Best performers: Nvidia +87%, Tesla +59%, QLD +36%
This portfolio is beating the SP500 by 40% in 2023 - quite remarkable considering 85% of money mgrs in the past 30 years could not beat the SP500's yearly return.
Buy Stops
Sell Stops
TODAY'S BEST & WORST SECTOR/INDEX ETFs
Sectors Up Today:
Solar +2.8%, China Internet 2%, Europe 1.6%, Airlines 1.6%, Semi's 1.5%, QLD 1.5%,
Oil 1.4%, GDX 1.5%
Sectors Down Today:
Biotech -2%, Oil Svcs -1%, Biotech -.5%, Dollar -.4%
TODAY'S BEST/WORST STOCKS
Stocks Up Today:
BABA +4%, ASML 3%, INTC 2.4%, SQ 2.3%, AMD 2.2%, AMAT 2.2%, LRCX 2%
Stocks Down Today:
ROKU -4.5%, REGN -1.3%, ISRG -1%, GOOGL -.9%
*These select stocks are chosen for their representation of key Sectors, and large
trading volume. We are aware that not all stocks are covered. These bellwether stocks show where the big money is flowing in, and even more importantly, where the money is flowing out of.
BEST SECTOR ETFs - So Far In 2023
Best Sectors
#1 Bitcoin +91%
#2 QLD 2X QQQ +37%
#3 Semi's SMH +29%
#4 ARKK +23%
#5 Robotics BOTZ +22%
#6 Soc Media SOCL +18%
Worst
Banks -18%, Biotech -10%, Oil Svcs -10%, Oil -7%, Energy -6%, Hlth Care -5%
*This is our select list of representative sector and index ETFs. We do not cover every subsector. We also look for lowest expense ratios & highest relative strength in selecting ETFs.
BEST STOCKS - So Far In 2023
In the brief period of 2023, Semi's, Cyber Security are in the lead. We'll see if that trend remains in place in the coming months. Nvidia, Tesla and Meta remain the solid leaders overall of the stocks we track.
Best Stocks
#1 Nvidia +87%
#2 Meta +72%
#3 Tesla +59%
#4 AMD +52%
#5 Palo Alto Net +40%
#6 Wynn +32%
Worst
PFE -21%, HAL -21%, MRNA -17%, NOC -16%, M -17%, BAC -15%
*Best Stocks of the select stocks we track.
Best Dividend ETFs So Far In 2023
We track 5 separate high dividend ETFs. They are RDIV, RDVY, NOBL, SDIV and SCHD (all dividend etfs), as well as 4 Bond etfs: SHY (1-3 yr treasury), VCSH (Sh Term Corp),
TLT (20 yr bond) and JNK (Hi Yld). Most of which we are currently holding in the two portfolio, (with the exception of NOBL, SCHD and JNK).
Best Dividend ETFs - Percent increase in price for 2023:
#1 Europe IEUR +5.4 3% Div
#2 Emerg Mkt Div DEM +4.5% 8.2% Div
#3 Emerg Mkts IEMG +2.5% 2.6% Div
KEY STOCK INDEX CHARTS TO WATCH
Chart Key For All Charts:
Green line: 21 Day Moving Avg
Orange: 50 DMA
Pink: 100 DMA
Blue: 150 DMA
Red: 200 DMA
SPY on a buy signal with MACD, 10/21 DMA and Momentum:
Nasdaq QQQ Daily chart -Trying to rise back to the Feb highs,
could hit resistance at previous high (314):
Hot Stock Charts We Are Watching Today
Super Dividend Bond, 13% div, buy signal:
Rising Dividend etf , huge fall, bouncing now, buy signal:
AMGN - 3 buy signals after a 23% drop, xlnt entry point
for the biotech firm:
Energy etf - XLE - also buy candidate:
Defense stocks - could see more price appreciation
Ukraine conflict, and NATO orders:
Haliburton had a 32% drop, and could bounce from that oversold level:
Schlumberger - Also down 24%, nice pattern up:
Oil Services OIH - Best of the Energy ETFs:
Gold etf GDX continues to show strength and fund flows:
Phillip Morris another possible consumer staple to consider:
GOOGL - possible double top, Watch for weakness on roll over:
SP500 WEEKLY CHART WITH PIVOT HIGHS AND PIVOT LOWS
Let's look at a few Weekly charts to get an idea of the overall trend we are currently in for three major indices - SP500, QQQ and the 20 year Bond etf TLT:
