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Top 3 Sector Portfolio Market Update

Updated: 16 hours ago

SECTOR INVESTING FOR MAXIMUM PROFITS


We focus on Sector Investing Strategies using an algorithmic trading model

that analyzes MACD, Momentum, On Balance Volume and Relative Volume indicators to select Stocks and ETFs. The portfolio can go long or short depending on market conditions. A small select group of 2x Index ETFs are also key parts of our portfolio mix.


Follow the Top 3 Sector Portfolio, up 16% in 2022 v.s. SP500's -17%, beating

the SP500 by 35% YTD.


Our Aggressive Growth Portfolio is up 16.5% in 2022, this portfolio features a mix of stocks and Sector ETFs.


TOP 3 SECTOR MISSION


Highest Total Return thru Sector ETFs and Stocks showing strong momentum, in industries that disrupt, innovate and improve the way the world works.


Top 3 Sector Site Map

  • Market Dashboard Stock indices, Adv/Decline, Volume, VIX

  • Market Update

  • Stocks In The News Today – Earnings, Upgrades/Downgrades

  • Top 3 Sector Portfolio Outlook

  • Top 3 Sector Portfolio & Aggressive Growth Portfolio Performance 2022 YTD Buy/Sell Stops

  • Today's Sector ETFs - Best and Worst

  • Today's Stocks - Best and Worst

  • 2022 YTD Best Sector ETF Performance

  • 2022 YTD Best Stock Performance

  • Best Dividend ETFs for 2022

  • Hot Charts To Watch

  • The Top 3 Sector Strategy - Why It Gives You An Edge


 

STOCK MARKET UPDATE

Wednesday 11/30/22 Market Close






Stocks Waver Ahead Of Powell's Speech


"Stocks climbed Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the central bank will slow the pace of its aggressive rate-hiking campaign that has weighed on markets.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 630 points, or 1.9%. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite jumped 4.2%. The S&P 500 added 2.7%.


“It makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down,” Powell said in a speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC. “The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.”


Powell cautioned the Fed may stay with restrictive policy for a long time before it ends its inflation fight.


“Despite some promising developments, we have a long way to go in restoring price stability,” Powell said.


Powell’s comments bolstered growing optimism among some investors that the Fed will deliver a smaller, half percentage point rate hike at its next meeting on Dec. 14 after four straight increases of three quarters of a point to tame high inflation.


“Investors are looking for that rock of certainty – something to hang your hat on for greater predictability of where the Fed’s going with interest rates,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXS Investments. “The messaging that the pace of rate increases can begin slowing as early as December was that rock.”


The 10-year Treasury yield eased a bit on the news to 3.7%


The Dow and S&P 500 are both set to end the month up more than 4%, while the Nasdaq Composite is on track to gain 3.5%." - CNBC.com 11/30/22



STOCK INDEXES YEAR TO DATE 2022

  • Dow Jones -5%

  • S&P 500: -14%

  • Russell 2000: -16%

  • Nasdaq QQQ: -26%




STOCKS IN THE NEWS TODAY

Click on stock name for real time quote


Hormel (HRL) The food producer’s stock slid 6.4% in the premarket after reporting a mixed quarter. Earnings beat estimates, but sales came up short of Wall Street forecasts. Hormel issued a weaker than expected outlook and said it expected a continued volatile and high cost environment.


Petco (WOOF)Petco’s adjusted quarterly earnings of 16 cents per share matched Street forecasts, but revenue was slightly above estimates. A comparable store sales rise of 4.1% beat the FactSet consensus estimate of a 3.5% increase. The pet products retailer’s stock rallied 8% in premarket trading.


CrowdStrike (CRWD) – CrowdStrike plunged 17.6% in the premarket after the cybersecurity company’s subscription numbers came in below analyst forecasts. CrowdStrike reported better than expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter, but economic uncertainty is prompting customers to delay spending.


Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP) – Horizon soared 32.9% in off-hours trading after the drug maker said it was in preliminary talks about a possible sale with several large pharma companies, including Amgen (AMGN), Sanofi (SNY) and Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) Janssen Global Services unit.


State Street (STT)State Street added 3.5% in premarket action after announcing an agreement to terminate its planned $3.5 billion purchase of Brown Brothers Harriman’s Investor Services unit. State Street cited difficulties in gaining the approval of regulators for the deal.


Biogen (BIIB) Biogen shares rose 3.6% in premarket action after partner Esai said it believed two deaths in the trial of their experimental Alzheimer’s drug could not be attributed to the treatment. Biogen stock fell earlier in the week when the report of the second death first surfaced. Data from the trial showed that the drug slowed cognitive decline but could carry a risk of serious side effects.


NetApp (NTAP) – NetApp tumbled 10.9% in the premarket on a weaker than expected forecast from the cloud computing company, which reported better than expected quarterly earnings.


Workday (WDAY) Workday shares rallied 9.6% in off-hours trading after the maker of human resources software lifted its outlook and announced a share buyback program. Workday also reporter better than expected top and bottom line results for its latest quarter.


Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) – Hewlett Packard Enterprise added 1.9% in the premarket after the enterprise computing company reported record quarterly sales and issued strong revenue guidance.





BREAKING NEWS LINKS


FED POWELL SIGNALS .5% RATE HIKE IN DECEMBER, THEN A PAUSE, PACE TO MODERATE, DOW ROARS UP 700 POINTS


BIOGEN'S ALZHEIMER DRUG LECANEMAB SHOWS BREAKTHROUGH RESULTS FOR PATIENTS - A $4.2 BILLION MARKET


MORGAN STANLEY: "WILD RIDE AHEAD" - POSSIBLE

24% DROP FOR MARKET IN 2023


PRIVATE HIRING FOR NOVEMBER COMES IN BELOW ESTIMATE OF +190,000 AT 127,000 ON ADP REPORT


CROWDSTRIKE FALLS 17% ON LOWER GUIDANCE FOR 2023


TESLA LOSING MARKET SHARE TO CHEAPER COMPETITION, FROM 79% SHARE TO 65% PAST 2 YEARS


CHINA UNREST AT FOXCONN FACTORY MEANS

A 15-20 M SHORTFALL FOR APPLE'S IPHONE PRO SHIPMENTS


SHOPPER TURNOUT HITS RECORD HIGH FOR BLACK FRIDAY


GOLDMAN: SEES OPEC PRODUCTION CUT AND OIL HITTING $110 A BARREL IN 2023


ELON MUSK: APPLE IS THREATENING TO REMOVE TWITTER FROM THE APP STORE






Main Stock Index Charts



SP500 etf SPY daily chart: Closes above 200 DMA (red line)

bullish, and up 14% from the October lows:





Nasdaq QQQ Daily chart - shooting up to 150 DMA up 12.5%

from the low





One more chart to watch: The China etf FXI, as unsettled and chaotic as

China market is it could also be a time to buy, but small bets only as every

headline will move it, up or down. Fell 61% past 24 months,

bound to bounce at some point, approaching the 21 Wk avg (green line)

at 27.41. A close above that is bullish:






See More Charts in 'HOT CHARTS TO WATCH' below, (after 2022 Stock Performance Section).


Here are stocks and ETFs we are covering. All of these charts have current buy signals, updated 11/30/22:


Rising Dividend etf RDIV

Europe etf - EZU

PXD - Pioneer Natural Resources

Nike

Robotics etf - BOTZ

Energy stock ETF - XLE

Super Dividend SDIV etf

Emerg Mkts etf IEMG Defense etf - ITA

Semi etf SMH

Caterpillar

Schlumberger

U.S. Dollar etf UUP

Haliburton

ASML Semi Litho

JP Morgan




Top 3 Sector Portfolio Update 11/30/22 Close


Fed Powell says he will moderate the rate hikes going forward,

only go .5% in December, and perhaps pause after that, sending stocks

rocketing on the news. The Dow finished up 737 points, most of it in the last hour,

a 2.2% gain, the SP500 upu 3%, but the Nasdaq even better up 4.5%.


Advance/Decline line was 6-1 advancing after being close to even most of the day,

Volume was strong, SPY trading a whopping 140 M shares, nearly 2x normal.

Oil up 3%, Dollar falling .8%, and the VIX falling back to 20.5 a big intraday move.


Sectors Up Today:

QLD +9%, KWEB 8%, ARKK 7.7%, Cloud 6%, Soc Media 5.8%, Internet 5.7%,

Semi's 5.7%


Sectors Down Today:

QID -9%, Dollar -0.8%,


The $TICK readings were in the +1800's as the Q&A got underway with Fed Powell,

have not seen that kind of bullish action in weeks. The shorts got trampled,

and all the Tech stocks left for dead rose from the grave big time.


We'll have to see if the trend continues with the PCE inflation report andthe

Jobs number on Friday, but ther was a definite shift in sentiment on the

Fed's perspective, and the market responded.



Top 3 Sector Portfolio Update


We added to our QLD position in both portfolios.



 

TOP 3 SECTOR PORTFOLIO -

STOCKS AND SECTORS WE LIKE NOW...


Current Recommendations

Index: QLD

Tech/Software: SMH, ASML

Consumer Prods: SBUX, KO, XLP (Consumer Prods etf), MCD, AZO

Industrials: CAT, DE

Energy: XLE. SLB, HAL

Defense: ITA (Defense etf), LMT, NOC

Health Care: UNH, HUM, MRK, PFE,

Commodities: NUE (steel strong) Cyber Security: PANW

Dividend ETFs: RDIV (Rising Div/Rising Rev etf 3.5% div), SDIV (14% dividend)

Bonds: SHY 1-3 Yr Treas 4.2% yld, VCSH Bond etfs 5.3% yld, TLT 4.2% yld

Currency: Short Dollar (UUP)




Top 3 Sector Portfolio Performance 2022 YTD


The Top 3 Sector Portfolio is up 15.5% so far in 2022 versus SP500's loss of -17%.

We are beating the SP500 index by 32%.

Our current asset allocation:

Index 3%, Sectors 30%, Dividend ETFs 29%, Cash 38%.


Best Holdings in Top 3 Sector Portfolio for 2022


#1 XLE Energy +28.5%

#2 SMH Semi's +15.5%

#3 ITA Defense +12%


Buy Stops

B. XLI Industrials @ 102.08

B. JNK Hi Yld Bond @ 91.95


Sell Stops

S. 1/2 QLD @ 39.29 Triggered on 11/29/22 @ 39.29 Gain: +4%

S. 1/3 SMH @ 216.04 Triggered on 11/29/22 @ 216.02 Gain: +15%





Aggressive Growth Portfolio Performance in 2022


The Aggressive Growth Portfolio which features a mix of ETFs and Stocks

is up 18% so far in 2022, versus the SP500's -14%, beating the SP500 index

by 33.5%. We added to QLD on 11/30/22.


Asset allocation:

Index 3%, Stocks 19%, Sectors/ETFs 26%, Dividend ETFs 29%, Cash 19%.


Best Holdings in Aggressive Growth Portfolio for 2022


#1 XLE Energy +30%

#2 NUE Nucor Steel +23%

#3 SMH Semi's +22%



Buy Stops:

B. XLI Industrials @ 102.08

B. JNK Hi Yld Bond @ 91.95


Sell Stops:

S. 1/3 XLE @ 90.12 Triggered @ 90.12 on 11/18/22 Gain: +28% S. 1/2 QLD @ 39.29 Triggered on 11/29/22 @ 39.29 Gain: +4%

S. 1/3 SMH @ 216.04 Triggered on 11/29/22 @ 216.02 Gain: +15%


 



TODAY'S BEST & WORST SECTOR/INDEX ETFs


Sectors Up Today:

QLD +9%, KWEB 8%, ARKK 7.7%, Cloud 6%, Soc Media 5.8%, Internet 5.7%,

Semi's 5.7%


Sectors Down Today:

QID -9%, Dollar -0.8%,





TODAY'S BEST/WORST STOCKS

Up Today:

WDAY +17%, BABA 9.5%, ROKU 9.5%, SQ 9%, NFLX 9%, NVDA 8%,

JETA 7.9%, TSLA 7.7%, QCOM 7.5%, MSFT 6%


Down Today:

MPC -1.3%, ATVI -.5%, WMT -.3%


*These select stocks are chosen for their representation of key Sectors, and large

trading volume. We are aware that not all stocks are covered. These bellwether stocks show where the big money is flowing in, and even more importantly, where the money is flowing out of.



2022 BEST SECTOR ETFs YTD


So far this year - Energy, QID and Dollar remain the leaders. Note how

well the rising Dividend etf RDIV has done in 2022, up 9.5%, much better than its

competitors like NOBL -4%, or SCHD -3%.


#1 Energy XLE +64%

#2 Oil Svcs OIH +65%

#3 Sh QQQ - QID +38%

#4 Crude Oil USO +30%

#5 Dollar UUP +11.5%

#6 Rising Div RDIV +10%


SP500 -14% QQQ -26% Note how SP500 value (SPYV) is outperforming,

only down -5% versus SP500 -16%.



*This is our select list of representative sector and index ETFs. We do not cover every subsector. We also look for lowest expense ratios & highest relative strength in selecting ETFs.


 

2022 BEST STOCKS YTD


Energy stocks, Health Care and Defense push to the front.

The top 5 are all Energy stocks: MPC, SLB, XOM, CVX, HAL.



#1 MPC +90%

#2 XOM +80%

#3 SLB +70%

#4 HAL +62%

#5 CVX +54%



*Best Stocks of the select stocks we track.

 

2022 Best Dividend ETFs YTD


We track 5 separate high dividend ETFs. they are RDIV, RDVY, NOBL, SDIV and SCHD (all dividend etfs), as well as 3 Bond etfs: SHY (1-3 yr treasury), VCSH (Sh Term Corp),

and TLT (20 yr bond).


We have seen that in the 1 and 2 year periods, the Rising Dividend & Rising Revenue etf RDIV outperforms all the other dividend ETFs, with a 9.5% gain for 2022, and a 37% gain the past 2 years (v.s. SP500's -15% loss for 2022, and +9% for past 2 years).

Adding the 3.5% dividend for RDIV, its performance rises to +13% for 2022 and 44%

past 2 years. That is an extremely strong return given the volatility of the time periods.


The RDIV is our only high dividend etf we invest in currently. The ETF only invests in companies with rising revenue and rising dividends each year, which also reflects strong and consistent cash flows - a proven factor in outperforming the SP500.


Best Performer:

#1 Dividend ETF is RDIV Rising Div & Revenue etf +9.5%, Div: 3.2%. SP500 -17% YTD


Best Dividend ETFs - Percent increase in price for 2022:


#1 RDIV Ultra Hi Div/Revenue +9.5% 3% Div

#2 DVY High Dividend Weighted +2% 3.2% Div

#7 SHY 1-3 Yr Treasury Bnd -5% 4.3% Yld




 


HOT CHARTS TO WATCH - Updated 11/30/22


Chart Key For All Charts:


Green line: 21 Day Moving Avg

Orange: 50 DMA

Pink: 100 DMA

Blue: 150 DMA

Red: 200 DMA



NOTE: IF YOU CLICK ON A CHART, IT WILL ENLARGE, THEN ALLOW YOU TO SCROLL THROUGH ALL THE CHARTS.



The Following Charts Are Current Buy Recommendations

Unless Otherwise Indicated




Rising Dividend & Revenue etf RDIV - Best of sector:




Europe etf - EZU big bounce off the lows:





NIKE breaks above 21 Week avg:




Energy etf XLE - just a monster, up 65% YTD, but poss. double top:




Emerg Mkts etf IEMG - After falling 36% from a year ago,

may be ready to rise. We'll see in next few weeks, falling dollar

is a major tail wind:




Defense Stock etf - ITA, up 21% past 4 weeks:




Semi etf SMH, after a 45% haircut, hit the 200 DMA

(red line), fell back:




Caterpillar - Straight up past 2 months:




Schlumberger - Oil/Gas/Tech behemoth- Ran up 60%

in past 4 weeks, But be careful as it's parabolic here:




Dollar etf UUP still below 150 DMA (blue line), we are still

advocating a short position:




Intern Game Tech - IGT rising fast:




Haliburton, up 72% in October - needs to pause here:




ASML Semi- Makes the litho machines for UV chips,

not subject to the new ban-on-China chip rules - nice chart