Updated: 15 hours ago
SECTOR INVESTING FOR MAXIMUM PROFITS
We focus on Sector Investing Strategies using proprietary Money Flow, Momentum,
MACD and Relative Volume indicators to select Stocks and ETFs. The portfolio can go long or short depending on market conditions. A small select group of 2x Index ETFs are also key parts of our portfolio mix.
Follow the Top 3 Sector Portfolio, with a return of +230% from the March pandemic low (3/23/20), versus the SP500's gain of 97%. Portfolio is up 242% in the past 2 years and +281% past 4 years as of 7/30/21.
Our Aggressive Growth portfolio is up 48% so far in 2021, and +310% from the
market low on 3/23/20. This portfolio features a mix of stocks and Sector ETFs with 58% in stocks, 34% in Sector ETFs and 8% in Dividend Yield. Seeks maximum growth. All charts and data updated daily to keep you in touch.
Top 3 Sector Mission:
Highest Total Return thru Sector ETFs in industries that disrupt, innovate and improve the way the world works.
TOP 3 SECTOR PORTFOLIO MARKET REPORT
We publish our market report every day, usually around Noon, as it allows time for the market to find its 'balance' for the day. On volatile sessions, we will post a closing report around 5:30 pm Eastern.
Always check our Sell Stops section of the Top 3 Sector Portfolio for the latest information. Another area to review is the "Hot Charts Today" for Stocks and ETFs currently in the news and getting unusual money flows.
We send a daily morning email to our subscribers. We will also send an intraday
email alert if market conditions change, or we buy or sell a new stock.
Top 3 Sector Site Map
Sector ETF Performance for 2021 – Best and Worst This Year
Top 3 Sector Portfolio Performance 2021 YTD
Market Dashboard Stock indices, Adv/Decline, Volume, VIX
Market Overview – Summary of Today’s Activity
Stocks In The News Today – Earnings, Upgrades/Downgrades, Mergers
Sector ETF and Stock Performance Intraday - Best and Worst
Breaking News Links
Hot Charts Of The Day
Stocks Trending on Reddit/WallStreet/Bets
Top 3 Sector Portfolio - Buy/Sell Stops
Aggresssive Growth Portfolio -Buy/Sell Stops
Best Stocks in 2021
Best Dividend ETFs
Historic Performance of Top 3 Sector Portfolio (1 yr, 2yr, 4 yr return)
The Top 3 Sector Strategy - Why It Gives You An Edge
TOP 3 SECTOR PORTFOLIO UPDATE 8/2//21
Is a storm on the horizon?
There have been a few worrying signs in the market in the past few weeks as we
move past the peak of earnings season. Amazon shocked the street with disappointing revenue and a subdued outlook, falling 7.6% taking other e-commerce stocks down with it, including Etsy -8%,
Ebay -7% and Shopify -2%.
Facebook points to the Apple privacy actions challenging its demo targeting ability, and misses estimates, sinking 6% off its highs. Signs point to a downshifting on the consumer side, or at least a re-deploying of spending power from e-commerce to out of home activities like concerts, travel and restaurants.
Kathie Wood's ARK Innovation etf has been strugglling of late, and now there's
an 'inverse ARKK' etf you can purchase just to make her struggle a bit more.
Add in the Robinhood IPO disaster and you could have the makings of a short term peak.
Robinhood has seen its daily trades fall over 50% in June YOY as the economy started to re-open and people ventured outside and away from their screens. Didn’t help that some bought HOOD at 40, and saw it drop to 34 in the same first day.
Robinhood derives 81% of its revenue from payment of order flow. If the orders
aren't flowing, that's one big problem. Oh, and the SEC is now investigating their process, while the U.K. has banned Robinhood's practices, cutting off international market expansion.
We watched our Roku holding in the Aggressive Growth portfolio get stopped out
of 1/3 of our position on Friday as it hit 438. We are also seeing sell signals on the FDN – “Fang” etf as it gapped below the 50 day moving average. On 8/2/21 we sold 1/3 of PYPL as it hit its sell stop on the Square buyout of Afterpay for $29 B.
It’s not a bad time to sell.
After all, the SP500 is +97% from the March 23rd Pandemic low, with the QQQ up 114% same time frame. Both are barely 1% off their all time highs. How could it get much better?
Then there’s the weak seasonality…
Barron’s reports that the average historic return of the SP500 for the month of July is +1.6%, with a positive return 60% of time , This year was even better, up 2.3% and the 6th consecutive positive month for SP500.
But then we enter “the most dangerous 3 months of the year” as Barron’s notes.
The “Summer Rip” to the “Fall Dip.”
Avg August : +.7% positive 58% of time
Avg September: -1% negative 55% of the time
Avg October: +1%
These 3 months also see a rapid rise in volatility with the VIX often spiking.
October has special psychological foreboding, as the crash of 1929,
Black Monday 1987, and the start of the 2007 financial crisis that sent stocks down 50% at the low. All were in the scary month of October.
But actually September has had more down days than October,
and the crashes we had in October actually started in September or earlier, but
the reaction was delayed to October.
In summary, we remain cautious on this market, and may begin to take
some profits in our high fliers such as Sea Ltd up 630% past since March of 2020,
Nvidia +264% and even Moderna up 1,248% and QLD (+320%).
We are also keeping an eye on Internet etf FDN, Software IGV and Semiconductors SMH . They’ve had huge runs off the March lows, from 100% to 140% and could turn down soon.
Stay flexible and don’t let profits disappear. It’s not every year that the SPY is up 97%. That’s just not normal, and an 8% to 12% pullback seems highly likely, just a question of when it happens, and, it looks like It could begin in the Aug/September time frame.
We may also buy some SDS (2x Short SP500) and QID (2x Short QQQ) for
Insurance against the coming storm. Bear in mind that if the market does start to
decline, the first assets investors will sell will be the ones with the biggest gains.
We want to be positioned to take advantage of the inevitable correction coming.
Best Sector ETFs In 2021*
#1 Retail XRT +48%
#2 2x QQQ QLD +31%
#3 Energy XLE +30%
#4 Builders ITB +29%
#5 Real Est VNQ +24%
China -12%, Biotech -12%, Bonds -4.5%
The Top 5 ETFs above are a graphic example of how Sector ETFs can significantly out perform the SP500. The SP500 is up 17% so far this year, but Retail is up 48%,
Energy +30%, and Builders +29%.
Staying in those Top 3 Sectors paid off handsomely this year with an average return of 37% year to date.
SP500 +17%, QQQ +16% for 2021
*This is our select list of representative sector and index ETFs. We do not cover every subsector. We also look for lowest expense ratios & highest relative strength in selecting ETFs.
Top 3 Sector Portfolio Performance 2021 YTD
Here's how the Top 3 Sector Portfolio has done so far in 2021,
it's up 20% versus the SP500's gain of 17% and QQQ's gain of 16%.
#1 Nasdaq 2x QLD +31%
#2 SP Growth IVW +18%
#3 Internet FDN +13%
#4 Software IGV +13%
Aggressive Growth Portfolio performance year to date
The Aggressive Portfolio is up 47% year to date, SPY +17%.
#1 MRNA +236%
#2 GOOGL +53%
#3 NVDA +52%
#4 SEA +40%
#5 QLD +31%
Tuesday 8/3/21 1:45 pm
Tuesday 8/3/21 11:00 am
Dow Jones Holds Small Gain As Nasdaq Reverses Lower; Growth Stocks Soar On Earnings
Key market indexes were mixed early Tuesday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average held a small gain but the Nasdaq reversed lower. The Nasdaq fell 0.3%, the S&P 500 slipped less than 0.1% and the Dow Jones industrials were barely positive in the stock market today. Small caps tracked by the Russell 2000 lagged, down 1%. Volume was lower on both major exchanges vs. the same time Monday. Among exchange traded funds, Innovator IBD 50 (FFTY) gained 0.7%, while the Nasdaq 100-tracking Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) edged 0.25% lower.
The U.S. economy continues to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, which triggered nationwide lockdowns over a year ago. Most states had relaxed restrictions as vaccinations continued to roll out and cases decreased. But mask mandates are returning in some areas as the delta variant spreads.
Cumulative Covid-19 cases worldwide are approaching 200 million, with more than 4 million deaths, according to Worldometer. In the U.S., cases have topped 35 million with nearly 630,000 deaths.
Although the numbers of new cases and deaths in the U.S. have decreased dramatically, cases are back on the rise in some states due to delta.
Growth Stock Movers
Translate Bio (TBIO) gapped up and vaulted 29% in huge volume to lead the IBD 50. The Massachusetts-based biotech is developing drugs based on messenger RNA (mRNA) technology, which is used in Covid-19 vaccines by Moderna (MRNA) and Pfizer (PFE)/BioNTech (BNTX).
SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) soared 16% in fast turnover to retake its 200-day moving average. Late Monday, the Israel-based solar energy systems maker reported Q2 earnings and sales that beat Wall Street targets and rose a respective 32% and 45%.
Also in the solar space, IBD Leaderboard stock Enphase Energy (ENPH) rallied 6.5% in heavy trade. Early Tuesday, shares climbed past a 196.12 buy point of a deep cup with handle, according to IBD MarketSmith chart analysis, before paring gains. The buy zone goes up to 205.93.
ZoomInfo Technologies (ZI) gapped up past a 60.38 consolidation buy point before trimming its gain to 4.4%. That put the stock back 3% below the entry. The enterprise software maker reported better-than-expected Q2 results after the close Monday. EPS soared 100% to extend ZoomInfo's triple-digit growth streak for a fourth straight quarter. Sales rose 57%.
On The Dow Jones
Walmart is 7% off its 52-week high as it consolidates, while Home Depot is about 1% away from a 333.55 buy point of a cup with handle.
But financials weighed on the Dow as American Express (AXP) lost 2.1%, and Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan (JPM) each gave up more than 1%. Disney (DIS), Boeing (BA) and Dow Inc. (DOW) also fell about 1% each.
STOCK INDEX PERFORMANCE FOR 2021 YTD
DOW JONES +14%
NASDAQ 100 +17%
RUSSELL 2000 +13%
STOCKS IN THE NEWS TODAY
Click on stock name for real time quote
"Under Armour (UAA) – Under Armour shares jumped 4.5% in the premarket, after the athletic apparel maker beat estimates on the top and bottom lines and the company raised its full-year forecast. Under Armour reported quarterly earnings of 24 cents per share, compared to a consensus estimate of 6 cents a share.
Translate Bio (TBIO) – French drugmaker Sanofi (SNY) agreed to buy the U.S.-based biotech company for $3.2 billion, or $38 per share in cash. Translate Bio specializes in mRNA technology, the type that was used to produce the Pfizer and Moderna Covid-19 vaccines. Translate Bio shares soared 29.6% in premarket trading.
Clorox (CLX) – Clorox tumbled 8.6% in premarket action after the household products maker missed top and bottom line estimates for its latest quarter. Clorox’s sales fell from a year ago, when consumers stocked up on its products amid the surging pandemic.
Eli Lilly (LLY) – The drugmaker’s shares lost 1.7% in premarket trading, after falling 2 cents a share shy of estimates, with quarterly earnings of $1.87 per share. Revenue beat forecasts, but Lilly’s overall results were impacted by weaker sales of Covid-19 therapies as more Americans got vaccinated.
Marriott (MAR) – The hotel operator’s stock gained 1.8% in premarket trading after it reported quarterly earnings of 79 cents per share, compared to a 45 cents a share consensus estimate. Revenue more than doubled from a year ago thanks to a rebound in travel demand, though it did fall slightly short of Wall Street forecasts.
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) – Take-Two lost 4.3% premarket trading after issuing a weaker-than-expected outlook and announcing delays in new releases for some of its games. The video game producer beat estimates by 12 cents a share, with quarterly profit of $1.01 per share. Take-Two’s revenue also topped Wall Street forecasts.
BP (BP) – BP surged 6.3% in premarket trading after it reported better-than-expected quarterly profit and revenue, thanks to higher oil and gas prices. The energy producer also announced a 4% dividend hike and a boost to its share buyback program.
Micron Technology (MU) – Micron instituted its first-ever dividend, with the chip maker planning to pay 10 cents per share in cash payable on October 18. Micron also said it had updated its share buyback policy to buy more when prices are low and fewer when prices are high. Micron shares gained 1.9% in the premarket.
Simon Property Group (SPG) – Simon Property shares rose 2.8% in premarket trading after it said sales at its shopping centers returned to pre-pandemic levels in June. The largest U.S. mall owner is hoping the improved results encourage retailers to sign new leases and help it fill space vacated during the pandemic.
SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) – SolarEdge reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for its latest quarter, with the solar energy company also providing an upbeat current-quarter forecast. SolarEdge surged 11.4% in the premarket." -CNBC.COM 8/3 /21
SECTOR ETFs TODAY 11:30 AM
TWM +1%, Utilities .8%, GDX .7%, Mat'ls .4%
KWEB -4.4%, Soc. Media -2.5%, Casinos -2%, Aerospace -1.5%, Oil -1.3%, ARKK -1.4%,
Airlines -1.2%, Biotech -.5%
UAA +5.5%, LLY 4%, MU 1.8%, ORLY 1.7%, IBM 1.7%
ATVI -4.4%, LVS -3.8%, WYNN -3.3%, BABA -2.5%, AAL -2.5%, MA -2.5%
*These select stocks are chosen for their representation of key Sectors, and large
trading volume. We are aware that not all stocks are covered. These bellwether stocks show where the big money is flowing.
BREAKING NEWS LINKS
TESLA REPORTS $1 B IN NET INCOME, 10X A YEAR AGO
IS HOUSING BOOM OVER? NEW HOME SALES FALL TO PANDEMIC LOW
HOT CHARTS TODAY
Tesla rising above 150 DMA - bullish:
Semi's etf - SMH gaps to all time high:
SQUARE breaks out on merger, huge volume up 11% today:
ROKU - a key holding in Aggressive Growth Portfolio, up 340% from the March low as of 7/28/21
If you hold that kind of gain, you have to take a few chips off the table.
Technical note: the RSI has a negative divergence with the recent price peak,
Not a good sign.
Update 7/30/21 - The technical divergence on ROKU proved accurate, and today's action saw Roku fall to 429.66, triggering our stop to sell 1/3 @ 438.16.
QLD - 2x Nasdaq etf - A key holding in Top 3 Sector Portfolio- explodes 329% from the March 2020 low
Chart Key For All Charts:
Green line: 21 Day Moving Avg
Orange: 50 DMA
Pink: 100 DMA
Blue: 150 DMA
Red: 200 DMA
Blue horizontal lines represent support or resistance, can also be used for suggested sell stops. In most cases, we will place the first sell stop midway between
the top and middle blue line, selling 1/3 if conditions warrant. But each investor must decide based on their position size and risk level. These blue line levels are raised as price increases, think of them as trailing stops.
Internet ETF - FDN falls below 21 day avg:
PayPal - gaps below 50 DMA, approaching sell stop - caution.
Update 8/2/21 - Hit sell stop, sold 1/3.
New Buy: Chinese Interenet etf - KWEB
Bought for Aggressive Growth portfolio 7/28/21 - after falling 56%
from the Feb 2021 peak. Is it finally time to buy China? We'll see.
New Buy: Ark Genomics - ARKG - Bought in Top 3 Sector portfolio on 7/28/21:
Top 10 holding ARKG are 42% of the entire ETF
Percent gain on close on 7/23/21.
GOOGL continues to impress, incredible quarter,
long term hold:
Moderna continues its massive move up 986% from
the March 2020 low:
Nvidia - up 335% since the March 2020 lows.
Bitcoin etf GBTC - Gap up is bullish, but what a fall.
Stocks Trending on Reddit/WallStreetBets -
Greatest % Increase In Mentions Past 24 Hrs
Reddit Largest % Change in Mentions Past 24 Hrs*
Infinity Pharma INFI-
Virgin Glact SPCE
Vector Acquis VACQ
Morgan stanley MS
*Stocks showing above average price movement, + is up - is down, ++ and -- indicate a more extreme move.
REDDIT, WALLSTREETBETS HOT STOCKS PERFORMANCE TODAY - 8/3/21 10:50 AM
Sector ETF Performance From 3/23/20 Pandemic Low
Past 16 Months
Let's take a look at how all Sector ETFs have done since the Pandemic low on 3/23/20. This is how we measure current performance in the Top 3 Sector Portfolio.
We like to use significant pivot lows (not a calendar year) to evaluate true performance, as those kind of 'Armageddon' sell downs tend to level all Sector ETFs and Stocks to ground zero. Then we watch what sector comes out first and strongest.
That is one of our key strategies. The 3/23/20 date is such a low.
#1 Russ 2x UWM +330%
#2 Nasdaq 2x QLD +320%
#3 Retail XRT +253%
#3 ARK Innnov ARKK +243%
#5 Ark Genom ARKG +211%
SP500 +96% QQQ +114% IWM Russell +119%
Worst: Dollar -11.6%, Bonds -9%, Defense -9%
TOP 3 SECTOR PORTFOLIO
As of 8/3/21, the Top 3 Sector Portfolio is up 224% from the 3/23/20 March low.
The SP500 is up 96% same time frame, we are beating the benchmark by 128%.
ARKG on 7/28/21 @ 84.16
S. 1/3 QLD @ 71.97
S. 1/3 ARKK @ 114.84
S. 1/3 IGV @ 392.37
S. 1/3 FDN @ 237.75
S. 1/3 SOCL @ 64.46