ECTOR INVESTING FOR MAXIMUM PROFITS
MARKET DASHBOARD - WEDNESDAY 8/12/20 10:50 am
The Dow is up 258 points or 1% to 27,955, SP500 up 1.3% to 3,376,
Nasdaq up 2% to 10,983 and Russell 2000 up .7%.
Adv/Decline line is 2000/800, Dollar is -.2%, Oil is up 2%, GDX rebounding 2% from yesterday's decline, Bonds TLT fall 1.2%, taking the 10 year yield up to .68% . The VIX is back to 22.25
as yesterday's fear trade recedes.
Sectors Strong Today:
QLD up 4.3%, Robotics +2.5%, GDX +2.5%, Semi';s +2.3%, ARKK +2.2%
Bonds -1.2%, Dollar -.2%
STOCK INDEXES YEAR TO DATE
Nasdaq QQQ +27%
S&P 500 +5%
Dow Jones -1.5%
Russell 2000 -4%
HIGHEST VOLUME RATIOS - ETFs and Stocks
The 'Zanger Volume Ratio' shows % above average daily volume for that particular ETF or stock. This indicator yields much more information about the trading action on a stock than simply gross volume.
SECTOR ETFs Highest Volume Ratios 11:00 am
Telecom +.1% on 385% above avg daily volume.
Social Media +1.5% on 222% +
Transports +1% on 200% +
Stocks Highest Volume Ratios
Fed Express -1% on +230% above avg daily volume.
Deere -.8% on 200% +
Target +1.6% on 180% +
Qualcomm continues to climb, up 3.5% on 160% +
Oh, and Tesla up 8% on 137% above avg volume after its 5-1
stock split announcement.
Sector ETF Performance 11:00 am Wednesday
QLD +3.7%, TBT Sh Bonds +2.2%, Europe 2%, Robotics 2%, GDX 2%
Bonds -1%, Biotech -.3%, Dollar -.2%
Select Stock Performance
TSLA +8%, AMD +4%, FDX +4%, QCOM +4%, MAXR +3%
WYNN -3%, ANF -2.2%, SLB -2%, BA -1%
*This list of "Select Stocks" represents key companies in each sector we track. They are meant to be bellwether sector indicators. Rather than cram a ton of stocks in just to cover all the favorites, this keeps the list to a minimum, allowing easier observation of unusual volume in each sector.
MARKET UPDATE WEDNESDAY 11:00 AM
Dow Jones Today, Futures Climb On Moderna Vaccine Deal; AMD Leads Chip Bounce; Tesla Announces Stock Split
Stocks rallied out of the starting gate Wednesday, as the market grabbed back ground lost in Tuesday's late-day decline, and the S&P 500 snugged up to a record high. Coronavirus vaccine news sent Moderna and BioNTech higher.
Tesla soared after announcing a stock split. Chips rebounded, with AMD and NvidiaNVDA leading the stock. And JP Morgan rallied to the head of the Dow Jones today, ahead of a record-setting auction of U.S. Treasury bonds.
The Nasdaq staked out an early lead, up 1.2% on the stock market today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average popped 1%, then narrowed to a 0.7% gain as Boeing dropped more than 1%. The S&P 500 gained 1%, putting it just a fraction from its record high from Feb. 19.
Russia's Sputnik V announcement on Tuesday, followed by a $1.5 billion U.S. government purchase of Moderna vaccine late in the day set travel stocks in motion. Cruise lines Norwegian (NCLH) and Carnival (CCL), and airlines American (AAL) and United (UAL), led the S&P 500. United surged 9.4% on Monday.
Tesla (TSLA) rocketed 6.7% higher, leading the Nasdaq 100 as it aims to snap a three-day decline. Tesla announced after Tuesday's close it would execute a 5-for-1 stock split, effective Aug. 31. Apple (AAPL) announced a 4-for-1 stocks split in July.
Chip stocks were showing early strength, as Qualcomm (QCOM) rallied 1.5% after a price target hike from Deutsche Bank.
On the IBD 50 list, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) bounced back 2%, after taking a 6.5% dive on Tuesday. Benzinga reported late Tuesday a series of unusually large bullish options trades placed on AMD shares.
Chili's restaurant owner Brinker International (EAT) gained 1% after earnings fell less than expected. Revenue missed targets, however. Shares were about 6% from a 32.40 buy point in a cup base.
Online education leader K12 (LRN) booked a 5.9% gain, after reporting adjusted earnings well above analyst targets. Actual earnings were pressured by K12's $165 million acquisition of computer coding school Galvanize in January.
K12 shares are consolidating below an Aug. 5 high, after sprinting up 104% following a June breakout.
The Great Covid Vaccine Race
Global markets kept an eye on the progress of the vaccine dubbed Sputnik V that was announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. The compound, developed by the Moscow-based Gamaleya Institute has not yet undergone phase 3 trials, in which it would be tested on a large number of persons.
Kirill Dmietriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund that is financing the research, told CNN that plans are to publish data later this month, or in September. Injections would be administered first to those at high risk, then to the broader population beginning in October, Dmietriev said.
In the U.S., biotech Moderna (MRNA) blasted 11% higher after President Donald Trump late Tuesday announced a $1.525 billion government deal to buy 100 million doses, with an option for an additional 400 million doses, of Moderna's experimental coronavirus vaccine. Moderna launched late-stage trials of its vaccine in July.
Dow stock Pfizer (PFE) gained 0.4%, and Germany-based BioNTech (BNTX) jumped more than 4%, after the companies announced positive results from Phase 2 trials of their jointly developed vaccine candidate.
Coronavirus: India New Cases Surge
As the worldwide case count climbs past 20.5 million, and the death toll ticks steadily toward the 750,000 mark, the coronavirus pandemic remains the prevailing concern of global financial markets.
In the U.S., the cumulative case total is now above 5.3 million. Deaths jumped to 167,761 Wednesday morning. The number of dead spiked more than 1,500 on Tuesday – the highest daily death count since May 27. Florida and Texas reported the largest share of those losses, with 549 fatalities between the two states. Active cases climbed above 2.38 million, up 6% since the start of August and 110% above the number of cases being managed by hospitals at the start of June.
Dow Jones Today: A Broader Confidence?
Where the day starts and where it ends up have been two different matters lately, but early action on the Dow Jones today looks as if the index may be treating its high from June 8 as a platform of support. That could evaporate in a heartbeat but, for now, continues to look as if the index has made an incremental upgrade in its status.
The Dow and the S&P 500 snapped their seven-day advances on Tuesday. The Nasdaq paused for a third day below the intraday high. The S&P 500 is poised just below its pre-coronavirus high at 3,393 set on Feb. 19.
Some industry and sector rotation is underway, and it's been a volatile stretch for growth stocks. But the improvements on the Dow and the Russell 2000, and the potential recovery of the S&P 500's old highs, appears to signal a broadening confidence among investors following the second-quarter reporting season.
Inflation Heats Up
Core consumer prices rose at their fastest pace since January 2001 thanks to jumps in used cars, transportation and apparel, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Overall, inflation was considerably higher than Wall Street expectations.
The Consumer Price Index less food and energy posted a 0.6% increase in July, compared to a 0.2% rise in June as inflation has begun to creep back into the economy following three months of coronavirus-related declines.
For the 12-month period, core CPI was up 1.6%. The all-items index also was up 0.6% for the month but just 1% over the past year. The biggest monthly gain came from gasoline prices, which rose 5.6%, while food at home declined 1.1%, Transportation services rose 3.6% while food costs overall were down 0.4%.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% increase in headline CPI for the month and a 0.8% gain for the year. The estimates for core CPI were 0.2% monthly and 1.2% for the year.
Dow Jones Stocks: Nike In Buy Range, Cisco Earnings Due
Among Dow Jones stocks in bases or buy ranges, Nike (NKE) was picked up as an IBD Leaderboard pick on Tuesday. The athletic wear icon is trading in a buy range, narrowly above a 104.79 buy point. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is also holding well within a buy range, after clearing a cup-with-handle buy point at 311.07 on Aug. 5.
Visa (V) is trading tight and holding support, 2% below a 202.28 buy point in a flat base. Cisco Systems (CSCO) has also shown extremely tight trade during the eight-week run-up to its earnings report, due after today's close. The stock ended Tuesday less than 3% below a 48.39 flat base buy point.
STOCKS IN THE NEWS
Tesla (TSLA) – Tesla announced a 5-for-1 stock split, saying it wanted to make its shares more accessible to employees and investors. The extra shares will be issued on August 28 to shareholders of record on August 21 and will begin trading on a split-adjusted basis on August 31.
Eastman Kodak (KODK) - CEO Jim Continenza said the company supported the government’s decision to halt a potential loan to the company, saying the deal required more work. The loan – designed to boost Kodak’s pharmaceutical business – is under scrutiny due to the granting of stock options to executives just prior to the announcement of the loan deal.
Roku (ROKU) – Roku was rated “buy” in new coverage at Deutsche Bank, which notes that the streaming video device maker is the leader in its category with a nearly 50 percent market share and said Roku has done an impressive job building out a large installed customer base.
Moderna (MRNA) – Moderna struck a more than $1.5 billion deal with the U.S. government for 100 million doses of its experimental COVID-19 vaccine. The vaccine will be provided to people free of charge, and the government will have the option to purchase an additional 400 million doses.
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) – Red Robin reported an adjusted quarterly loss of $3.31 per share, 4 cents wider than anticipated, with the restaurant chain’s revenue also falling below estimates. Its sales were hit by pandemic-related closings, and subsequent reopenings with limited capacity.
Overstock.com (OSTK) – Overstock announced that a new stock offering of 2.1 million shares was priced at $84.50 per share compared to Tuesday’s closing price of $92 per share. The online retailer said the money raised through the stock offering will be used for general corporate purposes.
Fluor Corp. (FLR) – Fluor said it would not be able to file its quarterly report in a timely manner without incurring unreasonable expense or effort, according to an SEC filing. The engineering and construction firm is in the process of investigating reporting in prior periods, but does expect to file its report before September 30.
Target (TGT) – The retailer’s stock was added to the “Analyst Focus” list at J.P. Morgan Securities, with the firm expecting strong first-quarter comparable sales numbers to sustain when second-quarter figures are released.
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) – J.P. Morgan Securities upgraded the apparel retailer’s stock to “overweight” from “neutral”, saying American Eagle is mispriced on the low side given multi-year tailwinds in the casual and athletic categories.
2x NASDAQ ETF - QLD
The #1 etf in the Top 3 Sector Portfolio, ran up 151%
from the 3/23/20 low, and 202% from 12/24/18 low (1.5 years).
Not too many stocks have a 200% 1.5 yr return, it's
a great run, but we are cautious going forward.
ARK INNOVATION ETF - $ARKK - BIGGEST INFLOWS OF 2020: THE NEW FANG STOCKS - DISRUPTION AND INNOVATION
TOP 3 SECTOR PORTFOLIO UPDATE
As of 8/12/20 the Top 3 Sector Portfolio is up 137% from the 12/24/18 market low (1.5 years). The SP500 is up 44% same time frame. We are beating the SP500 benchmark by 93%.
Our #1 holding is QLD - 2x Nasdaq etf, now up 199%, #2 ARKK +137% and #3 is Social Media SOCL +79%.
B. QID on 8/10/20 @ 10.36
B. KBE (Banks) on 8/10/20 @ 33.12
XBI - Sold 1/3 on 8/11/20 @ 111.21 (gain 67%)
QID - S. 100% on 8/23/20 @ 10.35 (loss .2%)
QLD - S. 1/3 @ 167.15
IGV - S. 1/3 @ 283.29
FDN - S. 1/3 @ 176.87
SOCL - S. 1/3 @ 46.04
XBI - S. 1st 1/3 @ 111.23 Triggered 8/11/20 @ 111.21
QID - S. 100% @ 10.35 Triggered 8/23/20 @ 10.35
XBI - S. 2nd 1/3 @ 104.02
TOP 3 SECTOR PORTFOLIO
Gain from 12/24/18 to 8/12/20 (1.5 years)
ETF SECTOR PRICE 12/24/18 % Gain
Index Allocation 34%
QLD (28%) Nasdaq 2x 58.52 201%
IVW (6%) SP500 Growth 140.49 63%
Index Subtotal: 183%
ARKK Ark Innovation 35.34 137%
XBI Biotech 65.42 67%
FDN Internet 107.21 70%
SOCL Social Media 26.60 79%
BOTZ Robotics 16.33 B. 12/26/18 66%
IGV Software 214.22 10/30/19 36%
KBE Banks 33.12 B. 8/10/20 3%
Sector Subtotal: +104%
Dividend Stock 9%
VIG Divid Apprec 2% Div* 90.55 B. 12/26/18 42%
Dividend Stock Subtotal: 42%
International Subtotal: 0%
TOTAL RETURN: +138% SP500 +44%
from 12/24/18 low Beating SP500 by 94%
TOP 7 STOCK PORTFOLIO
From 12/24/18 Low as of 8/12/20 (1.5 years)
Stock Company Price on 12/24/18 % Gain
AMZN Amazon 1343.96 +135%
SBUX Starbucks 60.56 31%
MA Mastercard 174.65 91%
MSFT Microsoft 94.13 120%
BLK Blackrock 436.33 B. 3/30/20 35%
Total Return +108% SP500 +44%
from 12/24/18 low Beating SP500 by 64%
TOP 7 STOCK PORTFOLIO UPDATE
We recently sold AMT, and now Verisign, but will wait until the current downtrend is completed before selecting two new stocks to bring the total to our namesake. So for now it's the "Top 5 Stock Portfolio" Will advise when we add them.
Update 8/5/20: We expect a market correction in the coming weeks, and will wait for more opportunities before buying our two new stocks for the portfolio
ETFs IN TOP 3 SECTOR PORTFOLIO
Featuring: QLD, ARKK, XBI, BOTZ, SOCL, FDN, IGV, VIG, IVW
Moving Average Key for All Charts
Green line: 21 Day Moving average (or Wkly Avg if Wkly Chart)
Orange: 50 DMA
Purple: 100 DMA
Red: 200 DMA
Blue horizontal lines represent support or resistance, can also be used for incremental sell stops.
QLD - Ran up 151% in the past 4 months at the peak. Our #1 holding in Top 3 Sector Portfolio, and up +234% past 3 years.
ARKK - Ark Innovation, rose 147% from 3/23/20, but showing signs of exhaustion. If a stock ran up 150% in 4 months you would probably sell 1/2 here. But this is 2020, and all sane bets seem to be off.
XBI BIOTECH etf: Now broken the 21 and 50 DMA (green and orange lines) We sold 1/3 of our position on 8/11/20 on a stop out.
ROBOTICS ETF - BOTZ UP 78% from March low:
SOCL Social Media etf - Up 95% from 3/23/20, but pulling back
to the 21 DMA - usually a caution sign. Note blue lines for stop loss level suggestions.
Internet ETF - FDN - The "FANG" stocks, nicely up 77% at the peak.
Sell if it breaks the 50 DMA (orange line at 176.3).
Software ETF - IGV up 62% from 3/23/20, watch the 50 DMA (orange line) at 286 for support/break down:
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation VIG. Investors buy in to
dividend bond proxies - unaffected by tech weakness.
Up 44% past 4 weeks:
SP500 Growth ETF - IVW, rising 53% past 4 months- excellent:
LONG AND SHORT TERM RETURNS -
TOP 3 SECTOR/TOP 7 STOCK PORTFOLIOS
Let's look at how the Sector ETFS and Select Stocks have done in the short term and long term periods.
Recent studies on stock performance have shown that looking
at both 12 month and 3 month (or 6 month) returns reveals the best candidates for future price appreciation.
The first time period is short term from the 3/23/20 most recent low (4 months), the 2nd is longer term - from the 12/24/18 low (1.5 yrs) to today.
SHORT TERM RETURN
SECTOR PERFORMANCE FROM 3/23/20 (4 months)
(as of 8/12/20)
#1 QLD +142% #2 ARKK +138% #3 Builders ITB +123%
The SPY is up 51% from the 3/23/20 low.
STOCK PERFORMANCE FROM 3/23/20 (4 months)
#1 Penn +409%, #2 Square +249% #3 TSLA +242%
SP500 is up 51%.
LONG TERM RETURN - From 12/24/18
(as of 8/12/20)
Sector ETF Performance Past 1.5 years
Here are all sector ETFs we track with a longer term performance
from the Xmas eve low 12/24/18 through 8/5/20.
#1 QLD +200% #2 ARKK +135% #3 SMH Semi's +111%.
Airlines -35%, Energy -28%, Banks -3%.
The SP500 is now up 44% from the 12/24/18 low.
Best Performing Sector ETFs Past 3 Years
ETF Rating* 3 Yr Avg (% per yr)
QLD 743 48% avg gain per yr
ARKK 679 42%
IGV 407 30%
SMH 352 32%
FDN 336 21%
XBI 280 21%
SOCL 332 22%
*Rating is a cumulative score based on multiple performance and technical proprietary indicators unique to Top 3 Sector Portfolio.
SELECT STOCK* PERFORMANCE PAST 1.5 YEARS
#1 Tesla +402% #2 ROKU +395% #3 AMD +382%
Macy's -75%, AAL -54%, Boeing -45%.
SP500 is up 44% since the 12/24/18 low:
*This list of "Select Stocks" represents key companies in each sector we track. They are meant to be bellwether indicators, and rather than cram a ton of stocks in just to cover all the favorites, this keeps the list to a minimum, allowing easier observation of where the money is flowing.
Best Performing Stocks 12/24/18 and 3/23/20 Time Periods and Average Yearly gains past 3 yrs:
12/24 + 3/23
STOCK Rating* 3 Yr Avg (% per yr)
TSLA 613 26% Avg Gain per Year
SQ 382 76%
NVDA 334 43%
AMD 465 73%
PYPL 284 43%
AAPL 279 44%
AMZN 202 36%
TEAM 164 73%
FTNT 174 53%
MSFT 169 39%
ADBE 162 48%
FB 163 28%
NFLX 133 39%
VRTX 115 49%
ATVI 153 26%
MA 114 44%
LONGER TIME FRAME - BONDS VERSUS STOCKS -
WHO WINS IN PAST 10 YEARS?
For the last 10 years, the SP500 is up 11.5% per year, and
+13.5% per year with reinvested dividends.
The SP500 has risen +193% in the last decade, but is up 255% with re-invested dividends.
Even more impressive: From the March 2009 market bottom to today (2/17/20), the SPY is up 335%, but up 438% with reinvested dividends. It's had a 17% annual return in the past 10 years.
20 year treasury bonds (TLT) have given you a 6.5% avg return
per year (including its 2.3% yrly yield).
TLT is up 39% in price for 10 years, and up 25% in yield, for a total return of 64%. The SP500 is up 438% in the same time frame with reinvested dividends.
We'll take the SP500 return over any bond, any time frame.
And it is the U.S. market has been the place to invest, rising 13.5% a year for the past 10 years, versus the world index (EFA) up 5.5% and Emerging Mkts' dismal 3% gain per year.
Top 3 Sector Portfolio Strategy
Our investment strategy is unique. In the Top 3 Sector Portfolio, we invest solely in ETFs, both long and short, with an emphasis on Sectors, as they always outperform indexes.
We will also use 2x ETFs, focusing on 6 key indexes only (SSO, QLD, UWM, TWM, QID, SDS) as warranted by market conditions. We do not short sectors.
In addition to the "Top 3 Sector ETF Portfolio," we also feature an all-stock portfolio entitled "Top 7 Stock Portfolio," utilizing the same criteria for selection of stocks as the Top 3 Sector Portfolio.
WHAT DOES "TOP 3 SECTOR" MEAN?
The term 'Top 3 Sector Portfolio' comes from a phenomenon we call the
"Top 3 Effect," where the top 3 sectors that emerge first from a pivot high or low, tend to outperform for longer durations.
After a flush out low, the best ETFs will continue to outperform 2, 3 or 6 months later.
Here's an example of this effect:
The first time period is from the 12/24/18 market bottom to today, 1/26/20, roughly 12 months.
The second period is the past 6 months (8/5/19 to 1/26/20). August 5, 2019 was the summer low.
Past 12 months
Past 6 months
Let's look at the first chart (12/24/18 to 1/26/20) the past 12 months:
Best 3 ETFs past 12 months:
2x Nasdaq QLD +128%, Semi's SMH 82%, Builders ITB +70%
When you look at Table 2 - (past 6 months) we see:
Best 3 ETFs past 6 months:
2x Nasd QLD +47%, Semi's SMH +36%, Builders ITB +25%
Note the QLD, Semi SMH and ITB builders are in the top 3 for both time frames.
Point being, that the Top 3 that emerged in the longer 1 year
time frame, tend to continue that out performance as we see in
the shorter time frame.
We will also allocate more capital to the Top 3 ETFs - concentrating resources on the best performing assets which greatly improves our returns.
The top 3-6 will vary a bit, but the first ones off that flush-out low, tend to be the ones still on top 6 months later, and 12 months later, etc.
One other thing to note, the Top 3 tend to 'pull away from the pack'
as time goes on. As time increases, this divergence increases as well.
Note that the Top 3 for the last 12 months are up an average of 93%, but the average of the next tier of 3 drops to 56%.
We have observed this effect over the course of nearly 18 years of trading, giving more credence to the power of the "Top 3 Sector Strategy."
The momentum strategy has been documented by two recent research studies, where stocks that outperformed by a wide margin over a 5 month and 12 month period also delivered a much greater gain longer term. The MTUM Momentum etf follows a similar strategy.
SHORT OR LONG - WE TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE TREND
The beauty of this strategy is that we make money in both Bull and Bear markets, as we can switch to short ETFs when a positive trend is ending, whereas nearly all mutual funds are long only - giving them a definite disadvantage when markets decline.
Since Sectors always outperform indexes, we have a larger portfolio allocation to this area (57%).
For instance, as seen above, as of 1/26/20 the SP500 is up +39% for 2019. But the Semi etf SMH is up 82%, with Home Bldrs ITB +69%.
Yes, sectors always outperform indexes.
In normal market conditions, we allocate as follows:
2 Index ETFs (QLD and IVW)
5 Sector ETFs (This may vary between 4-6 due to mkt conditions)
2 Dividend Stock ETFs (only VIG currently)
2 International ETFs (Currently none)
As of 7/10/20 our portfolio allocation is currently:
Dividend Stock: 9%
This portfolio strategy is aggressive, and is recommended for experienced investors, especially since we employ the 2x ETFs, as well as Inverse ETFs.
THE POWER OF DIVIDENDS
Dividend Yield ETFs are also critical to outperforming the benchmarks.
Investors today are desperate for yield.
We utilize domestic and international dividend stock ETFs (although currently we are in domestic only).
Currently we have VIG for our Dividend Yield allocation. VIG - Dividend Appreciation etf is up 34% the past 3 months, with a dividend of 2%.
Dividends are taxed at only 15%, (for those with incomes less than $250,000/year). Interest income would be in the 22% to 24% ion the same earning bracket.
The power of re-invested dividends for total return is simply amazing.
From January 1990 to today (2/18/20 as of this writing), the SP500 is up 869%. Not too bad for a 30 year return.
But wait, add in dividends reinvested, and that SP500 return rises to an astonishing +1,691%!
Dividends should ALWAYS be reinvested. Always.
Here's a list of Dividend Stock ETFs, as well as some Domestic and
international bond funds that measures performance from the 3/23/20
low to 7/20/20:
Note that our VIG - Vang Dividend Appreciation is up 34% in past 3 months, yielding nearly 2%.
Top 10 Holdings of Top 3 Sector Portfolio ETFs
The Top 10 holdings in Sector ETFs can vary considerably when it comes
to concentration. Some are heavily top weighted, such as Social Media SOCL with over 65% of stocks in top 10, versus XBI Biotech which only has 20% of the ETF in its top 10 stocks.
The QQQ has 57% of its stocks in the top 10 - that concentration helps to explain its outperformance. But a whopping 45% of the QQQ is only
5 stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN and Facebook.
Nasdaq 100 etf - QQQ Top 10: 57% Internet FDN: Top 10: 48%
Social Media SOCL: 10: 65% Software etf - IGV - 10: 57%
Robotics etf - BOTZ Top 10: 60% ARKK Ark Innov. - Top 10: 57%
Biotech XBI: Vang. Div Apprec. etf: VIG
Top 10: 20% Top 10: 32%
SP500 Growth etf - IVW - Top 10 - 39%
NUALOLO VALLEY, KAUAI
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